The Swinging of the Political Pendulum

Many people have tried to assure me that however difficult the political, economic, and social conditions in the U.S. may become under authoritarian rule, improvements are on the way - the political pendulum inevitably swings back. The thing is, this analysis assumes a stable center point and consistent gravitational forces. In a post-liberal world, I argue, this assumption needs some vetting.

Why the Pendulum Metaphor Fails

Institutional Degradation

The "center" that held the pendulum stable has fundamentally eroded:

• Judicial Independence: Courts increasingly seen as partisan actors rather than neutral arbiters

• Electoral Integrity: Growing distrust in election systems and processes

• Legislative Norms: Breakdown of informal rules that made governance possible (filibuster reform, committee processes, etc.)

• Administrative State: Political weaponization of traditionally neutral civil service

Asymmetric Polarization

The "swings" aren't equivalent:

• Conservative movements have developed more sophisticated infrastructure for advancing their agenda during "their" periods

• Progressive gains are often more easily reversible than conservative institutional changes

• The right has been more effective at "ratcheting" - making it harder to undo their changes

Key Conditions Driving These Dynamics

Structural Economic Changes

• Financialization: Capital's increasing mobility undermines local/national democratic control

• Inequality: Extreme wealth concentration creates different political physics

• Economic Insecurity: Declining social mobility breeds anti-system sentiment

• Technological Disruption: Automation and AI creating fundamental economic uncertainty

Information Ecosystem Fragmentation

• Media Polarization: No shared information baseline for democratic deliberation

• Social Media Echo Chambers: Algorithmic reinforcement of existing beliefs

• Disinformation Campaigns: Deliberate erosion of shared truth

• Expertise Delegitimization: Systematic attacks on professional knowledge

Cultural and Social Capital Erosion

• Community Dissolution: Declining participation in civic organizations, religious institutions, unions

• Geographic Sorting: Self-segregation into politically homogeneous communities

• Generational Divides: Fundamentally different experiences and worldviews across age cohorts

• Identity Politics: While necessary for justice, also creates challenges for coalition-building

Global Context

• Democratic Recession: Worldwide trend toward authoritarianism

• Great Power Competition: Return of geopolitical rivalry affecting domestic politics

• Climate Crisis: Existential challenges requiring unprecedented cooperation

• Migration Pressures: Demographic changes creating cultural anxiety

The Post-Modern Political Landscape

Your observation about the "post-modern" nature of current politics is particularly insightful:

Non-Binary Dynamics

• Issues and coalitions no longer fit neat left-right categories

• Strange bedfellows on specific issues (some left-right cooperation on tech regulation, criminal justice reform)

• Single-issue movements that cross traditional boundaries

Fragmented Authority

• Multiple centers of power competing for legitimacy

• State vs. federal authority questions intensifying

• Corporate power often exceeding governmental power

• Social movements as quasi-governmental actors

Competing Realities

• Different groups operating from fundamentally different factual premises

• Postmodern skepticism of grand narratives creating vulnerability to conspiracy theories

• Truth itself becoming a political battleground

Potential Trajectories

Scenario 1: Continued Fragmentation

• Further breakdown of national-scale governance

• Increased state-level policy divergence

• Regional political economies developing differently

• Potential for peaceful "democratic sorting" by geography

Scenario 2: Authoritarian Consolidation

• One faction successfully capturing institutions

• Suppression of opposition through legal and extra-legal means

• Transformation into illiberal democracy or outright authoritarianism

Scenario 3: Crisis-Driven Realignment

• Major crisis forces new consensus

• Potential for progressive realignment if right overreaches

• Climate crisis or economic collapse creating new political coalitions

• Generational replacement eventually shifting dynamics

Scenario 4: Constitutional Crisis/Reformation

• Formal recognition that current system is ungovernable

• Constitutional convention or major institutional reforms

• Potential for peaceful democratic renewal or chaotic breakdown

The Ratchet Effect

“Ratchet effect” refers to the way in which moves in one or the other direction politically can produce results that are hard to roll back, especially when the political center is weak and unstable. The U.S. is ruled by a two-party system, making binary swings in the political culture more likely. But, as politics swings in one or the other direction, an unstable center moves with the pendulum such that each subsequent swing starts in a new place.

This is perhaps most visible in:

• Judicial Appointments: Each conservative period reshapes courts for generations

• Voter Suppression: Laws passed during Republican control are hard to reverse

• Economic Policy: Tax cuts easier to pass than tax increases; regulations easier to eliminate than create

• Federal Bureaucracy: Easier to defund agencies than rebuild them

• Structural Inequality: The more deeply entrenched structural inequality around race and gender become, the more normative power unequal relations gain.

Where This Leads

We're in a period of systemic transition rather than cyclical politics. This means:

• Normal political strategy may be insufficient for progressive movements

• New forms of organization and power-building are necessary

• The stakes of political contests are existential rather than merely policy preferences

• Time horizons matter enormously - short-term thinking becomes extremely dangerous

Implications for Movements

This analysis suggests that effective responses must:

• Build alternative institutions rather than just capture existing ones

• Create new forms of social solidarity that can withstand fragmentation

• Develop strategies that account for institutional instability

• Prepare for multiple scenarios rather than assuming historical patterns will continue

This framework also helps explain why traditional liberal political strategies often feel inadequate to meet the moment. They're designed for a political system that no longer exists. Liberalism and liberal political strategies aren’t irrelevant, but the relevance may be more in relation to a “no” plan to block authoritarian consolidation. A “yes” plan for democratic expansion will require developing new approaches suited to the systemic changes that are occurring in the post-consensus reality we now inhabit.