Trump's Unpopularity Is An Opportunity

But Only If We Know How To Take Advantage Of It

The threat and opportunity of Trump’s extreme unpopularity is something experts are noting but haven’t fully exploited: Trump’s approval rating is dramatically lower than Narendra Modi’s (India) 75%, or the 80%+ approval ratings enjoyed by authoritarian leaders like Hugo Chávez (Venezuela), Alberto Fujimori (Peru), Vladimir Putin (Russia), and Nayib Bukele (El Salvador) when they launched authoritarian power grabs.

WHY TRUMP’S COMPARATIVE UNPOPULARITY?

1. ASPIRATIONAL VS. APPREHENSIVE POPULISM

Modi represents “aspirational populism” emphasizing a national project toward future greatness, while Trump and Orbán (who holds a majority of support, but not the extraordinarily high support of some of his peers) practice “apprehensive populism” emphasizing fear and loss, with nostalgic rhetoric about past greatness under threat. Aspirational populism simply polls better, with people preferring to vote for something rather than against something.

2. AMERICAN INSTITUTIONAL RESISTANCE IS REAL

American institutions are stronger than those in Hungary, Turkey, and other competitive authoritarian regimes, with an independent judiciary, federalism, bicameralism, and midterm elections, all of which are absent in Hungary. America’s strong tradition of local governance provides crucial resistance to centralized authoritarian control, with tens of thousands of political officials making their own determinations rather than being forced to bend the knee, plus vast independent professional organizations and a decentralized educational system maintaining intellectual independence.

This creates visible friction. Courts block him, states resist, professional organizations push back. This visible resistance itself depresses his popularity as it causes people to see him as embattled rather than triumphant.

3. DIVERSITY AS DEMOCRATIC RESILIENCE

The U.S. is 30 times bigger than Hungary and infinitely more diverse. This diversity is a source of economic and cultural strength, with an enormous and active civil society, a judiciary that remains mostly independent, and a constitution that guarantees rights to challenge and change government. In more homogeneous societies like Hungary or India (despite its diversity, Modi consolidated around Hindu majority), authoritarian appeals to “real” citizens work better.

4. SPEED VS. GRADUALISM BACKFIRING

Trump’s bombastic style has brought forth rapid, “flood the zone” change, while under Modi, change has unfolded in a more gradual, deliberate way, even though both align with the authoritarian agenda to centralize power. Trump has accomplished in eight months the authoritarian consolidation that took Orbán and Modi eight or so years.

The speed itself creates resistance. Modi boiled the frog slowly. Trump turned up the heat too fast, triggering immune responses before he could disable them.

5. NO OVERWHELMING CRISIS MANDATE

Modi had the “Gujarat model” of development. Putin had Chechnya bombing fears. Erdogan had economic growth. Trump won on immigration and the economy but remained “a divisive, unpopular political figure” with “many still having misgivings about his character and bombastic, sometimes anti-democratic campaign rhetoric.” He never got the broad mandate that typically enables consolidation.

6. MINORITY SUPPORT MISTAKEN FOR MAJORITY

Both Trump and Modi pose as if they have majority support which is not true. Trump got three million popular votes less than Hillary Clinton in 2016, Modi’s BJP got 31% of votes in 2014 nationally but because of a first-past-the-post system got absolute majority in parliament. But Trump’s electoral college victory came with constant reminders of popular vote loss, while Modi’s system obscures this reality.

THE STRATEGIC OPENING: WHY UNPOPULARITY IS DOUBLE-EDGED

Here’s the critical insight: Less popular leaders face greater resistance from legislatures, courts, civil society, and even their own allies, making their power grabs more likely to fail. Peruvian President Castillo and South Korean President Yoon each had approval ratings below 30 percent when they attempted to seize extraconstitutional power, and both failed.

The Vulnerability Windows:

According to a University of Oslo study, 50 percent of regime breakdowns or “dictatorship deaths” have occurred during an election year, because elections act as a meeting point on which oppositional individuals and groups can focus their attention, enabling coordination and amplifying voices while revealing a regime’s vulnerability.

Milošević’s rule was short-circuited by an attempt to manipulate elections in Serbia. The unpopular nature of his rule has led to increased civil society activity and cooperation between opposition parties.

Why Trump is Vulnerable Now:

• Trump’s limited public support and inevitable mistakes will create opportunities for democratic forces in Congress, in courtrooms, and at the ballot box

• Scenario planning exercises showed that an authoritarian president would have a cadre of loyalists but would be unlikely to find enough men and women who are both loyal and equipped by experience to fill thousands of positions required to carry out plans

• Lower courts are checking Trump, and he does not have the overwhelming popular support that was crucial for other autocratic leaders to change their country’s political systems

OPPORTUNITY VS. THREAT: THE STRATEGIC CALCULUS

An unpopular authoritarian who knows he can’t win fairly is more likely to disrupt elections. But here’s how to turn that into opportunity:

THE THREAT SIDE

Increased Desperation:

• Authoritarian regimes are most vulnerable early on in an electoral sequence, whereas after a certain inflection point, reiteration of authoritarian elections enhances their prospects for survival

• 21st-century authoritarians maintain the facade of elections while tilting the rules - suppressing votes, biasing, distorting, falsifying, or even overturning results

• Expect coordinated certification refusal, mass expulsion tactics, as well as violence and intimidation

The Suspension Risk:

• Modern tyranny is terror management. When the terrorist attack comes, as it did in the U.S. on 9/11, authoritarians exploit such events to consolidate power, using sudden disaster to justify ending checks and balances, dissolving opposition parties, suspending freedom of expression and the right to a fair trial

• Every crisis becomes a potential “emergency” to cancel/postpone elections

THE OPPORTUNITY SIDE

1. Unpopularity Limits Elite Participation in Authoritarian Coalitions

Unlike Modi or Orbán, Trump can’t deliver overwhelming electoral victories that make elites want to climb aboard. Business leaders, military brass, career civil servants are likely calculating whether they’ll be on the winning side in 2028. His unpopularity keeps those calculations uncertain.

2. Elections Remain the Winning Strategy

In almost every instance where authoritarian projects have been defeated, it has been through elections. Illiberal populists crave the legitimacy that comes from victory in elections, but corruption and misrule erode their electoral support, so they need elections that are competitive enough to validate their claim to rule but rigged enough to minimize risk of defeat.

The pathway: Seize the electoral opportunity, flood the zone with election workers and observers, and wage an effective campaign so people who have grown weary of authoritarian abuse can defeat it at the ballot box.

3. His Unpopularity Makes Coalition-Building Easier

To win, democrats must forge a unified coalition across factional and ideological divides, offer concrete policy ideas to improve people’s lives, and a narrative about what has happened to justice and democracy and why restoring these will help make the country great.

Building a broad based resistance is easier when the enemy is widely disliked. Modi’s 75% approval makes coalition-building hard as who wants to be against someone so popular? Trump’s low support makes it obvious: most people already want an alternative, they just need coordination.

4. Institutional Resistance Has Legitimacy

Most federal judges, regardless of political leanings, have demonstrated that justice prevails even in the face of extreme political pressure. Courts accused the government of providing false information in 35 cases, arbitrary and capricious conduct in over 50 cases, and non-compliance with court orders in 15 cases.

When judges resist a popular authoritarian, it looks like elite obstruction. When they resist an unpopular one, it looks like the system at work.

5. The Backlash Accelerator

Democracy does not collapse overnight, it erodes gradually and then suddenly, with normalization of undemocratic practices cloaked in legality yet corrosive to constitutional governance. But Trump’s speed and unpopularity prevent normalization. Each new outrage creates fresh backlash rather than acceptance.

HOW TO MAKE THIS AN OPPORTUNITY:

STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK

PHASE 1: PROTECT THE 2026 OPPORTUNITY (NOW-NOVEMBER 2026)

A. Pre-Position Legal Infrastructure

• Writs of mandamus ready in every swing county

• State takeover powers identified and legal teams ready

• Criminal referral packages prepared for certification refusal

• From earlier analysis: courts can compel certification, remove officials, have state officials perform duty

B. Flood the Zone With Legitimacy

• Flood the zone with election workers and observers

• Use high-quality election monitors, not “zombie“ monitors

• Make every single action transparent and documented

• Create alternative certification systems ready to deploy if officials refuse

C. Narrative Offensive

• Frame 2026 as a referendum on his unpopularity

• Even some Republican voters are tired of the chaos

• Demonstrate the broad coalition against him, don’t just talk about it

• Make visible resistance a badge of honor, not obstruction

PHASE 2: EXPLOIT ELITE UNCERTAINTY

Target the Calculation:

• Make clear that certification refusal = criminal liability

• Corporate America: “Do you want to be on the losing side?”

• Military/security establishment: “Professional reputation matters”

• Career civil servants: “We’ll remember who resisted”

The Message: His unpopularity means he’s not inevitable. You can be the general who didn’t follow illegal orders, the judge who upheld the Constitution, or the secretary of state who protected democracy. And you’ll be celebrated for it.

PHASE 3: TURN DISRUPTION ATTEMPTS INTO PROOF OF DESPERATION

If He Tries to Disrupt:

Don’t just fight it legally, use it politically. Every certification refusal becomes:

• “So unpopular he has to steal elections”

• “Can’t win fairly, so he’s burning it down”

• “Even his own party can’t win with him”

Communication Strategy (adapting Taiwan “humor over rumor”):

• When he claims fraud: “Guy with underwater approval says everyone loves him”

• When he delays certification: “Can’t count votes that went against you?”

• When he threatens suspension: “Dictators suspend elections when they know they’ll lose”

We need to make the disruption itself proof of his weakness, not his strength.

PHASE 4: BUILD THE RIVER FOR 2026

We Need a Springs-to-River Framework:

The Springs (ideologically homogenous groupings that share a common goal of limiting Trump’s power):

• Never-Trump Republicans

• Suburban women (abortion rights)

• Young people (climate, democracy)

• Labor (economic populism)

• Communities of color (under attack)

• Small business owners (harmed by tariffs and cuts to programs that stimulate the economy from the bottom-up)

• Civil society organizations (directly threatened)

The River Coordination:

• The springs need to feed a river of mass action

• Forge unified coalition across factional and ideological divides, offer concrete policy ideas to improve people’s lives

• Single message: “Strengthen checks and balances, protect democratic freedoms, deliver for families”

• Coordinated funding (Civil Marriage Collaborative model)

• Joint strategic calendar (what we learned from marriage equality, as per above link)

• Regular convenings

The Discipline: From earlier analysis:

• Agreement on non-negotiables (protect elections, uphold rule of law)

• Willingness to subordinate differences for coordinated action

• Mechanisms to resolve disputes

• Commitment to mutual defense when springs attacked

PHASE 5: PREPARE FOR SUSPENSION SCENARIO

If He Tries to Suspend/Cancel Elections:

This is where his unpopularity becomes a decisive advantage. Modi or Orbán with 75% approval might get away with it. Trump with record low approval ratings? Democratic self-defense may rest on the demonstrated will of the American people, expressed, if necessary, in persistent, large-scale protest, to reject authoritarian rule.

Preparation:

• Pre-positioned mass mobilization infrastructure

• Clear legal strategy: The most pressing legal question is what to do if an authoritarian president defies a court order

• International observation and pressure

• State-level resistance (blue states hold elections anyway?)

• Economic consequences (general strike preparation)

Key Insight: Authoritarian leaders do the most damage when they enjoy broad public support. Bukele, Chávez, Fujimori, and Putin all had approval ratings above 80 percent when they launched authoritarian power grabs. Such overwhelming public support helps leaders secure the legislative supermajorities or landslide plebiscite victories needed to impose reforms that entrench autocratic rule.

Trump doesn’t have that, which means suspension would trigger an immediate crisis of legitimacy. The military may not back him. Courts won’t rubber-stamp. States will resist. And most Americans will see it for what it is.

THE BOTTOM LINE: HOW TO WIN

The Paradox: Unpopular authoritarians are simultaneously more dangerous (desperate, willing to break more norms) and more vulnerable (lack mandate, face more resistance, can’t consolidate).

The Strategic Response:

1. Protect 2026 at all costs - this is the moment of maximum vulnerability for him

2. Make his unpopularity visible - break the illusion that “everyone” supports him

3. Coordinate the opposition -l easier when majority already wants change

4. Prepare for disruption - but frame it as desperation, not strength

5. Build mass mobilization capacity - if he suspends elections, sustained protest is the way to go

Why This Works: Brazilian President Bolsonaro’s approval rating was well below 50 percent when he tried to orchestrate a coup to overturn his country’s 2022 presidential election. He too (being hopeful), was defeated and forced out of office.

Trump’s unpopularity isn’t just a weakness; it’s the weakness that can be exploited. But only if pro-democracy forces organize, coordinate, and prepare now for every scenario from attempted certification refusal to attempted suspension.

The window is 2026. His unpopularity means he knows it. That’s why he’ll try to disrupt. But it’s also why we can win.