Understanding the Global Pattern of Authoritarians Rising to Power and Entrenching Their Rule

And What We Can Do About It

A troubling trend has emerged globally: authoritarian leaders come to power through ostensibly democratic elections, consolidate their authority, and then manipulate or outright steal subsequent elections to ensure their continued dominance. This pattern reveals a dual strategy: exploiting democratic systems to gain legitimacy and then subverting them to retain control. Understanding this trend and preparing for it is critical for activists, civil society leaders, and pro-democracy advocates.

Key Examples of the Trend

1. Turkey – Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

   • Rise to Power: Elected as Prime Minister in 2003 and later transitioned to the presidency, Erdoğan initially gained support through economic reforms.

   • Consolidation: Used legal changes to concentrate power in the executive branch, targeted opposition leaders, and suppressed media freedom.

   • Election Manipulation: The 2018 presidential election saw significant media bias, suppression of opposition candidates, and voter intimidation, ensuring Erdoğan's re-election.

2. Russia – Vladimir Putin

   • Rise to Power: Elected President in 2000, Putin consolidated power by aligning with oligarchs and appealing to nationalist sentiment.

   • Consolidation: Over years, Putin silenced critics, controlled media narratives, and amended the constitution to extend his rule.

   • Election Manipulation: Opposition leaders face arrests or disqualification, and elections are marked by ballot stuffing and voter suppression.

3. Hungary – Viktor Orbán

   • Rise to Power: Elected Prime Minister in 2010, Orbán’s Fidesz party initially gained support by opposing corruption and economic instability.

   • Consolidation: Orbán restructured the judiciary, altered electoral laws, and used state resources for partisan purposes.

   • Election Manipulation: Gerrymandering, media control, and changes to voting laws ensure Fidesz maintains an electoral advantage.

4. Zimbabwe – Robert Mugabe

   • Rise to Power: Won independence-era elections in 1980 as a liberation hero.

   • Consolidation: Employed state resources to buy loyalty, suppressed opposition, and controlled media narratives.

   • Election Manipulation: Used violence, intimidation, and rigged ballot counts to retain power for decades.

5. Nicaragua – Daniel Ortega

   • Rise to Power: Elected President in 2007 on promises of social reform and anti-imperialism.

   • Consolidation: Ortega neutralized political opposition, silenced dissent, and controlled the judiciary.

   • Election Manipulation: Recent elections saw opposition leaders jailed or exiled and extreme voter suppression.

6. Belarus – Alexander Lukashenko

   • Rise to Power: Elected in 1994 as a populist reformer.

   • Consolidation: Overhauled the constitution to extend his terms, used state media to control narratives, and violently suppressed protests.

   • Election Manipulation: The 2020 election was marred by falsified results and a brutal crackdown on protesters challenging his claimed victory.

Tactics Used to Subvert Elections

1. Legal Manipulation

   • Altering electoral laws to benefit the ruling party.

   • Redistricting or gerrymandering to dilute opposition votes.

2. Media Control

   • Silencing independent media and amplifying state propaganda.

   • Controlling narratives to discredit opposition figures.

3. Voter Suppression

   • Intimidating voters, particularly in opposition strongholds.

   • Restricting voter registration or access to polling stations.

4. Targeting Opposition

   • Jailing, disqualifying, or exiling opposition leaders.

   • Smearing opposition as foreign agents or criminals.

5. Election Day Fraud

   • Ballot stuffing, tampering with vote counts, and limiting election monitoring.

6. Weaponizing the Judiciary

   • Using courts to invalidate opposition victories or block election challenges.

   • Extending terms of office via constitutional amendments.

Preparing to Counter Election Subversion

1. Building Robust Electoral Institutions

   • Demand Independent Oversight: Advocate for independent election commissions and international monitoring.

   • Strengthen Legal Protections: Push for transparent voting laws and safeguards against fraud.

2. Mobilizing Civil Society

   • Voter Education: Educate voters on how to spot and report irregularities.

   • Election Monitoring: Train volunteers to document violations and safeguard polling stations.

3. Strengthening Opposition Coalitions

   • Unified Fronts: Encourage opposition parties to form alliances to counter authoritarian manipulation.

   • Resilient Leadership: Build mechanisms to support opposition leaders targeted by harassment or imprisonment.

4. Leveraging International Pressure

   • Expose Manipulation: Collaborate with international observers and media to highlight election abuses.

   • Sanctions and Advocacy: Use diplomatic and economic tools to pressure regimes to hold fair elections.

5. Engaging in Nonviolent Resistance

   • Mass Mobilization: Organize large-scale, peaceful demonstrations to challenge illegitimate results.

   • Sustained Protests: Maintain momentum to delegitimize stolen elections and demand accountability.

6. Building Parallel Institutions

   • Shadow Governments: Form credible, unified alternative leadership to contest authoritarian legitimacy.

   • Community Networks: Create local organizing hubs to maintain democratic practices and build resilience.

Recommendations for Activists and Leaders

1. Plan for Escalation: Assume that an authoritarian leader will escalate their tactics as opposition grows and prepare contingencies for each scenario.

2. Invest in Digital Defense: Protect opposition organizing from surveillance, hacking, and disinformation campaigns.

3. Document Abuses: Build robust evidence chains to expose fraud and human rights violations, both domestically and internationally.

4. Organize for the Long Game: Authoritarian regimes thrive on fatigue. Build grassroots capacity to sustain resistance over years, not just election cycles.

5. Strengthen Community Bonds: Counter authoritarian divide-and-rule strategies by fostering trust and solidarity across diverse communities.

Lessons from Global Movements

1. The People Power Movement (Philippines, 1986)

   • Nonviolent protests forced Ferdinand Marcos to step down after a stolen election.

   • Key takeaway: Mass mobilization and unity among opposition groups can delegitimize authoritarian regimes.

2. Ukraine’s Orange Revolution (2004)

   • Widespread protests and international pressure overturned a fraudulent election.

   • Key takeaway: Public outcry, combined with evidence of fraud, can force authoritarian leaders to concede.

3. Belarus Protests (2020)

   • Despite mass demonstrations, Lukashenko held onto power through brutal repression.

   • Key takeaway: Sustained resistance requires strong international support and robust grassroots networks.

The Wrap Up

The pattern of authoritarians manipulating elections to entrench power is a global challenge, but it is not insurmountable. Authoritarian regimes exploit democratic systems to consolidate power, but their legitimacy rests on a fragile foundation. Activists and community leaders must be vigilant, proactive, and prepared to counter election subversion with strategic, nonviolent resistance. By fostering unity, mobilizing voters, and engaging in international advocacy, pro-democracy movements can protect electoral integrity and uphold the democratic process. The power to resist lies in the collective action of the people—ready, resilient, and resolute.