What Does A Trump Victory Mean For the World?
If Donald Trump were to win the election, something that at this hour is not yet determined, his foreign policy could bring dramatic shifts across the globe, especially in vulnerable areas like Palestine and Ukraine, along with other nations facing authoritarian challenges and/or severe political instability. The progressive movement in the U.S. would do well to consider the multidimensional set of dynamics at play and expand our ability to imagine just how much worse already tragically unjust relations could become under authoritarian rule, move away from using victim narratives as a means of driving organizing, especially as these are a staple of reactionary, authoritarian populism, and adopt foresight planning rooted in long-term projections in the context of democratic backsliding and authoritarian gains.
Here’s a run down of what might happen based on a reading of projections in a number of publications, including Foreign Affairs:
Palestine and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Increased Support for the Israeli Government: In his first term, Trump’s administration showed Israel strong support—moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and advancing a peace proposal widely criticized for its heavy tilt toward Israeli interests. A second term could set even more of a precedent for policies that further strengthen Israel’s regional position while not addressing Palestinian sovereignty.
Normalization Deals without Palestinian Input: Trump brokered the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab states while leaving Palestinian interests at the door. With a second term, Trump would likely look to expand these deals, continuing to sidestep Palestinian sovereignty and sidelining any push for a two-state solution.
Cuts in U.S. Aid to Palestinian Institutions: Previously, Trump cut funding to Palestinian agencies and development projects critical to stability in the West Bank and Gaza. Another term would likely bring further cuts, pressuring Palestinian leadership into concessions that don’t align with their self-determination goals.
Ukraine and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Reduced Support for Ukraine: Trump’s history of hesitancy toward directly challenging Russia suggests that U.S. support for Ukraine could wane significantly under a second term. He’s criticized U.S. spending on Ukraine, and a policy shift could force Ukraine to rely heavily on European support, potentially leaving it weakened and more vulnerable.
Pressure for a Russia-Friendly Settlement: Trump might push Ukraine into a “peace deal” that concedes Ukrainian territory to Russia, offering only temporary stability but leaving Ukraine open to ongoing Russian influence and aggression.
Recognition of Russian-Controlled Areas: In line with previous territorial recognitions, Trump could recognize Russia’s control over annexed areas of Ukraine, which would weaken Ukraine’s territorial integrity and bolster Russia’s regional authority.
Implications for Other Vulnerable Nations
Taiwan and East Asia: Trump’s mixed stance on China, marked by economic confrontation but security ambivalence, would likely continue. If U.S. support for Taiwan becomes a bargaining chip in broader U.S.-China negotiations, China could feel emboldened to increase pressure on Taiwan, escalating tensions in the region.
Iran and the Middle East: Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and imposing strict sanctions raised tensions with Iran, and a second term would likely see continued isolation of Iran. Trump may even support direct military action from allies like Israel, destabilizing the region further and putting vulnerable Gulf states at greater risk from proxy conflicts.
Global Humanitarian and Climate Issues: Trump’s administration rolled back funding for humanitarian relief and exited climate agreements. A second term would likely mean further cuts to international aid, disaster response, and climate initiatives, severely impacting nations dealing with poverty, climate challenges, and displacement, and possibly fueling migration and instability.
General Trends for Vulnerable Nations under a Second Trump Term
Lower Priority on Human Rights and Democratic Norms: Trump’s foreign policy has prioritized immediate strategic and economic advantages over commitments to human rights or democratic principles. For nations facing authoritarian pressures, like those in Eastern Europe and Latin America, a second term could mean even less U.S. advocacy for democratic governance.
Increased Regional Conflicts: As the U.S. steps back from conflict zones or pressure points, regional powers could test the boundaries of a U.S. retreat. This could lead to more localized conflicts in areas like the South China Sea, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe as countries jockey for control in a less U.S.-engaged landscape.
Unpredictable, Transactional Diplomacy: Trump’s approach to bilateral, transaction-based alliances could destabilize vulnerable nations that rely on consistent U.S. policies. By bypassing multilateral alliances, smaller countries would face an uncertain U.S. stance, disrupting their security and economic forecasts.
What It all Means in a Paragraph:
If Trump secures a second term, it’s likely we’ll see the U.S. play a diminished role in global conflicts, leaving vulnerable nations to navigate increasingly difficult situations with less reliable U.S. support. This retreat would likely weaken stability in critical regions, while authoritarian and expansionist forces capitalize on a less engaged U.S.